Electric vehicles will be cheaper than conventional cars already in 2022
Electric cars have become a symbol of the fight against climate change, but they are still worth the high price on the way to the widespread approval. BloombergNEF new study shows that by 2022 they will be cheaper than cars with internal combustion engines. Ten years ago, few could have predicted the rapid growth of electric industry. In 2010, there were about 12,500, but today on the roads already five million - and only a few percent of their sales accounted for the total car sales.
This was due to continued decline in the price and size of the battery, as well as a healthy stimulus from the Tesla, which has pushed the rest of the owners of the automotive industry to establish priorities in the development of electric vehicles. But despite the progress, these cars are still lagging behind their "smoking" and "chadyaschie" brothers in price, mileage, distance and time "filling".
When the cheaper electric cars?
The last two points remain controversial - driving range of most electric cars is measured in hundreds of kilometers, far more than most people pass the day, although concerns about distance is still a matter of concern for many consumers. But the price difference is often enough to make all but the most ardent defenders of the ecology, fluctuate. And it is quick, however, is changing. Analyst in the field of energy BloombergNEF Nathaniel Bullard noted that in 2017 believed that electric cars will become cheaper with ICE in 2026. Last year, the rating will move to 2024, and this - in 2022 for a large transport in the European Union.
This is because falling prices for lithium-ion batteries reduce the overall cost of the vehicle. A few years ago, the batteries can cost up to half the cost of the car, they now account for about 33% of the total cost and it should decrease to 20% by 2025. The same dynamic is likely to lead to an increase in the range of electric vehicles run, and we add to this trend excavators, boats and planes with electric motors.
There are several problems the industry is looming on the horizon. While innovations have played a major role in its rapid transformation, a huge share of success falls on the support of the governments that are trying to "decarbonise" transport segment.
In the US, two of the leading manufacturer of electric vehicles - Tesla and General Motors - have sold more than 200 000 vehicles, then the federal tax incentives that have made the beginning of a more affordable, we began to decline. However, now it is not clear what will be the further movement on the part of the current administration. The Chinese government recently cut subsidies for electric vehicles, which have played a crucial role in overtaking the US as the largest market in the world of electric cars. The move was driven by fears that the company relied too heavily on concessions, rather than innovation, and so in 2020 subsidies will be removed completely.
Weak government support could jeopardize the virtuous circle of constantly falling prices, which lead to higher demand and, consequently, the size of the economy requires all manufacturers of cheaper batteries and cars.
But in spite of all possible obstacles to market momentum seems unstoppable. Regardless of when it will cross the threshold of electric vehicles, which will be cheaper than conventional cars with internal combustion engines - three, five or seven years - the transport segment will be set considerably.
Keep an eye on the development of electric vehicles market in our Zen.